HIV/AIDS in India Maria Ekstrand, PhD, MS Lisa Garbus, MPP Elliot Marseille, DrPH, MPP AIDS Policy Research Center, University of California San Francisco Published August 2003 Updated August 2003 (c) 2003 Regents of the University of California All Rights Reserved. Table of Contents PREFACE 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 5 NOTES ON STATE-LEVEL DATA 5 NOTES ON TERMINOLOGY 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 EPIDEMIOLOGY 6 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND SOCIOBEHAVIORAL CONTEXT 6 IMPACT 12 RESPONSE 12 EPIDEMIOLOGY 18 AT A GLANCE: SUMMARY BULLETS 18 OVERVIEW 19 HIV SENTINEL SURVEILLANCE 20 LATEST NACO ESTIMATES 24 TRANSMISSION PATTERNS 24 UNAIDS ESTIMATES 25 AIDS CASES 26 AIDS MORTALITY 28 NATIONAL PREVALENCE TRENDS 28 STATE-LEVEL ANALYSES 29 DATA QUALITY ISSUES 30 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND SOCIOBEHAVIORAL CONTEXT 32 AT A GLANCE: SUMMARY BULLETS 32 COUNTRY OVERVIEW 41 POSTCOLONIAL PERIOD 43 ECONOMY 44 POVERTY 47 GOVERNANCE 48 POPULATION MOBILITY 52 HEALTH 63 SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS 70 STIGMA AND DISCRIMINATION 71 GENDER 75 AWARENESS AND KNOWLEDGE OF HIV/AIDS 82 SEXUAL BEHAVIOR 90 YOUTH 94 MSM 95 SEX WORK 98 ALCOHOL AND DRUG USE 100 IMPACT 105 AT A GLANCE: SUMMARY BULLETS 105 DEMOGRAPHIC 106 MACROECONOMIC 107 HOUSEHOLD 108 ORPHANS AND OTHER VULNERABLE CHILDREN 110 AGRICULTURE 111 INDUSTRY 111 PRISONS 111 RESPONSE 113 AT A GLANCE: SUMMARY BULLETS 113 BUDGET ALLOCATIONS 114 GOVERNMENT 120 BUDGET ALLOCATIONS 125 NONHEALTH MINISTRIES 125 HUMAN RIGHTS 127 DONORS 130 CIVIL SOCIETY 133 NATIONAL NGOS AND CBOS 133 HIV PREVENTION TRIALS NETWORK (HPTN) 136 VCT 136 PMTCT 137 CARE AND SUPPORT 138 TREATMENT OF OPPORTUNISTIC INFECTIONS (OIS) 139 ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY (ART) 139 FEMALE-CONTROLLED PREVENTION TECHNOLOGIES 142 ECONOMIC INTERVENTIONS 143 VACCINE TRIALS 144 INDUSTRY 144 LINKS 145 REFERENCES 146 Preface The Country AIDS Policy Analysis Project is managed by the AIDS Policy Research Center at the University of California San Francisco. The project is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, Cooperative Agreement PHN-A-00-01-00001-00. Stephen F. Morin, PhD, is the project's principal investigator. The project receives additional support from the International Training and Education Center on HIV (I-TECH), a collaboration of the University of Washington and UCSF funded through a cooperative agreement with the HIV/AIDS Bureau of the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration. The views expressed in the outputs of the Country AIDS Policy Analysis Project do not necessarily reflect those of USAID or I-TECH. The Country AIDS Policy Analysis Project is designed to inform planning and prioritizing of effective and equitable HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment interventions through multidisciplinary research on HIV/AIDS. The project evolved from the acute need for analysis of the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in tandem with analysis of countries' political economy and sociobehavioral context¾at household, sectoral, and macro levels. This multidisciplinary analysis aims to: * help inform national HIV/AIDS policies * strengthen ability to plan, prioritize, and implement effective interventions * highlight the range of sectoral interventions that may affect or be affected by HIV/AIDS * facilitate multisectoral/interministerial coordination * facilitate intercountry information sharing * increase national and subregional capacity for effective partnerships The project develops and disseminates online, fast-download, continually updated analyses of HIV/AIDS in 12 USAID priority countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, Cambodia, and India The primary audience for the country analyses is in-country HIV/AIDS planners, including those from government ministries and agencies, multi- and bilateral donors, international and local NGOs, health care institutions, prevention programs, academia, affected communities, and the private sector. International investigators and policymakers also report using the analyses in their work. All country analyses undergo peer review at the AIDS Research Institute of the University of California San Francisco. In addition, two in-country experts from each profiled country serve as peer reviewers. A scientific advisory board also reviews all analyses. Each analysis is linked with national strategic plans for HIV/AIDS prevention, care, and support. Analyses also include a comprehensive table of key indicators, drawn from a global database that UCSF's AIDS Policy Research Center conceptualized and developed. The database comprises 73 HIV/AIDS and socioeconomic indicators for 168 countries and 13 regions; APRC collected and organized data spanning HIV/AIDS, human development, gender, population, economy, public expenditure trends (health, education, military), debt servicing, general health, sexual & reproductive health, and educational attainment. Project staff assess and incorporate new data to maintain the timeliness of the analyses. Acknowledgments The following individuals served as peer reviewers and provided valuable inputs to this paper: Dr. Monica Gandhi of the University of California San Francisco; Dr. Lalit Dandona, Health Policy Unit, Administrative Staff College of India, Hyderabad; and Dr. Jayashree Ramakrishna, Department of Health Education, Indian National Institute of Mental Health & Neuro Science, Bangalore. They are not responsible for any errors of fact or judgment. Notes on State-Level Data The scope of HIV/AIDS in India is enormous and rapidly changing. India has 35 states and union territories, and over 600 districts. Accessing complete, comparable data for all regions, states, union territories, and districts is a major challenge. Given this scenario, the present report provides a multidisciplinary overview of HIV/AIDS in India, focusing primarily on six states in which HIV prevalence has surpassed 1 percent among women attending antenatal clinics and which India's National AIDS Control Organization has identified as high priority: Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharasthra, Manipur, Nagaland, and Tamil Nadu. Notes on Terminology The use of the following caste categorizations and other nomenclature does not constitute an endorsement of any particular terminology: scheduled castes (dalits), formerly referred to as "untouchables"; backward castes (formerly low castes); and scheduled tribes (indigenous peoples). Executive Summary Epidemiology The number of HIV infections in India is difficult to ascertain and the subject of ongoing controversy. In late July 2003, NACO released new figures indicating that there were between 3.82 million and 4.58 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS during 2002, of whom 38.5 percent were women. NACO also estimated that there were 610,000 new HIV infections in 2002. UNAIDS estimated that between 2.6 million and 5.4 million Indians were living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 2001, with adult prevalence at 0.8 percent. Low overall prevalence masks crucial differences among regions, states, and subpopulations. There are growing localized HIV epidemics in India. The heaviest impact of the epidemic is currently being felt in six states that have been classified as "high prevalence": Maharasthra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradhesh, Manipur, and Nagaland. Moderate-prevalence states such as Gujarat and Goa also contain hard-hit districts. The first case of HIV infection in India was reported in 1986. In 1987, HIV sentinel surveillance and AIDS case identification was launched. Initially, HIV spread among female sex workers and their male clients, STI clinic patients, and professional blood donors. It subsequently began to spread among populations including women attending antenatal clinics. In July 2003, NACO announced that there has been a decline in HIV transmission through blood/blood products, from 6.07 percent of all new infections in 1999 to 2.99 percent in 2002. HIV transmission via IDU had also declined, from 5.29 percent of new infections in 1999 to 2.87 percent in 2002. The percent of HIV transmission attributed to mother-to-child transmission had increased, from 0.33 percent in 1999 to 2.61 percent in 2002. It is difficult to determine actual prevalence among MSM in India, given that NACO has only recently collected data on MSM and in only two surveillance sites. India' HIV prevalence estimates are based solely on sentinel surveillance conducted at public sites. The country has no national information system to collect HIV testing information from the private sector, which provides over 80 percent of health care in the country. Moreover, most Indian laboratories do not adhere to quality assurance standards for HIV testing. Political Economy and Sociobehavioral Context India is the world's largest democracy. Its mid-2003 population was 1.07 billion. In recent decades, India has significantly improved the well-being of its people. Despite achievements, however, the scope of poverty continues to be enormous. Structural adjustment measures launched in the 1990s have had some highly beneficial effects on the Indian economy, including higher growth rates, lower inflation, and significant increases in foreign investment. However, both the central and state governments are currently facing a deteriorating fiscal situation. Moreover, vast income disparities between and within India's states persist and poverty reduction remains paramount. In 2001, India's GNI per capita of US$480 ranked 162 out of 208 countries. Structural adjustment sought to shift more health care delivery to the private sector. Public spending on health, as a percent of GDP, did not rise during the 1990s (0.9 percent), whereas private expenditure on health now accounts for 4.0 percent of GDP, or 81.6 percent of all health spending. There is an increasing gap between rich and poor states with regard to public resources available for health, with resultant disparities in health outcomes. A major concern is that as the central government reduces its role in health care delivery, with decentralization and privatization to fill the gap, safety nets for the poor (especially those in rural areas and women) are being threatened. This scenario is particularly worrisome as the ability of state governments to provide basic health care is imperiled, given their current and severe fiscal problems There has been intense debate regarding recent poverty trends in India. The emerging consensus appears to be that there was some decline in poverty during the 1990s, but the size of the decline remains unclear. Using international poverty markers, in 1997, 44.2 of the population lived on less than US$1 a day, and 86.2 percent lived on less than US$2 a day. Richer states grew faster over the 1990s and may have also been more successful at reducing poverty. Poverty is increasingly concentrated in the poorest states, particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Madhya Pradesh. Constitutional amendments in 1993 provided a legal foundation to local governments and sought to strengthen participatory processes at the local level. These amendments included a mandatory requirement that one-third of local representatives be women, and that seats be reserved for scheduled castes and tribes in proportion to their population. However, commitment to decentralization has varied by state, as has capacity to strengthen local government. Corruption in India is systemic. With decentralization, states are increasingly responsible for addressing corruption, though whether they have adequate resources (in addition to political will) to do so is unclear. The Indian judicial system is impeded by enormous backlogs, slow processing times, some degree of corruption at the state level, low level of knowledge about new aspects of the law, and weak enforcement of decisions. Unable to persuade the executive or legislative branches to take action, many Indian NGOs are increasingly using public interest litigation to defend rights. Some of these cases have involved the rights of PWHA. Over the past several years, India has experienced a significant increase in organized and random violence, particularly communal, ethnic, tribal, and caste-based violence. Kashmir is the largest threat to regional security in South Asia. Ethnic violence can, inter alia, spur significant population dislocation and regroupings of family units, which entail exposure to new sexual networks and thus may heighten vulnerability to HIV. It also affects state and local government's ability to deliver essential services. There is enormous population mobility in India and throughout South Asia. Mobile populations include * permanent and seasonal labor migrants within the country * those entering and leaving India for work-related reasons * people dislocated by drought, floods, or other disasters * people dislocated by conflict * refugees seeking asylum in India * transport workers * traders/vendors * hotel and tourism workers * tourists (e.g., temple tourists) * prisoners * military personnel * sex workers * trafficked persons * MSM India has a long history of mobility. During colonial rule, the British moved segments of the population to Sri Lanka, Malaya, and other countries to work on plantations. Movement of unskilled workers increased during the 1970s, including to the Gulf states, which sought cheap labor. According to the 1993 National Sample Survey in India, 24.7 percent of the population had migrated, either within India, to neighboring countries, or overseas. Recent data on female-to-male sex ratios in urban and rural areas suggest that many more men than women have migrated to urban areas. Urbanization has resulted in large slum populations. Labor migration is a common livelihood strategy in India. India is also a country of origin, transit, and destination for thousands of trafficked persons. The communities from which migrants emigrate are vulnerable to HIV for several reasons. While their male partners are away for long periods (and particularly if they do not send regular remittances), some women may rely on sex work to supplement household income. Returning migrants with HIV, many of whom do not know their status, may infect their wives or other sex partners in the home community. There are myriad challenges within the health sector, including the generally poor quality of services delivered by both the public and private sectors. The public health infrastructure is vast, comprising 600 district hospitals, 4,000 community health centers, 25,000 primary health centers, 137,000 subcenters, and 160 medical colleges. Public health facilities suffer from poor management, low-quality service, and underfunding. There is large variance in health financing among Indian states, and the gap between rich and poor states regarding public resources for health is increasing. Sixty-five percent of Indian households go to private hospitals/clinics or doctors for treatment when a family member falls ill. Only 29 percent normally use the public health sector. Even among poor households, only 34 percent normally use the public health sector when family members become ill. Only 10 percent of Indians have some form of insurance, most of which are inadequate. The World Bank argues that the private health sector in India is unlikely to substantially improve the health and nutritional status of the poor. The private sector remains virtually unregulated and has highly variable quality of care. However, the government's response to HIV/AIDS, at least with regard to ART, is predicated on strong partnerships with the private sector. According to WHO, India continues to have the world's highest burden of TB. Each year, there are an estimated 2 million new TB cases in India, representing about one-third of the global TB burden. TB remains the country's leading cause of death. WHO estimates that 4.0 percent of adult (15-49) TB cases were HIV-positive during 2001. An estimated 3.4 percent of new cases that year were multidrug-resistant. TB is the most common opportunistic infection in India. In 2001, a joint action plan on HIV/AIDS and TB was created, though WHO notes that concrete strategies to link the two do not yet exist. Several studies indicate that herpes simplex virus-2 may be fueling the HIV epidemic in India. HIV/AIDS-related stigma in India is severe. Stigma and discrimination are most often encountered in the health care setting and, to a lesser but still significant extent, in family and community contexts. AIDS stigma and discrimination in India are often a gendered phenomenon. Women are often blamed by their in-laws for infecting their husbands. In addition, HIV-positive women are more likely to take care of their husbands, neglecting their own health. After having been the primary caregivers for their husbands, many women are asked to leave the house of their in-laws after their husband die. Studies have also detailed how in addition to female sex workers, MSM and transgenders with HIV/AIDS experience double discrimination. Indian women's legal rights have generally not been implemented. India's sex imbalance is related to the comparative neglect of female health and nutrition, particularly during childhood. Other factors include increasing cases of sex-selective abortions (illegal but widespread); female infanticide; violence against women; suttee (wherein a widow is burned to death on her husband's cremation pyre, an illegal act); dowry murders (wherein a woman is killed due to insufficient gifts/money given by her parents at the time of her wedding); and discrimination in access to health care, nutrition, and employment opportunities. Despite socioeconomic changes, preference for sons continues in India. There are acute gender disparities in literacy and education. Forty-eight percent of ever-married women are not involved in making decisions about their own health care. There are significant and persistent gaps between women's legal rights and their actual ownership and control of land. About 20 percent of ever-married women have experienced beatings or physical mistreatment since age 15 and at least one in nine have experienced such violence in the last year. Most of these women have been beaten or physically mistreated by their husbands. Prior to HIV/AIDS, there were already strong gender biases in access to health care. Recent studies have found when both a husband and wife are infected with HIV/AIDS, men routinely receive care and treatment ahead of their wives. Lack of money and distance to treatment are also constraints to HIV-positive women's ability to access care. The National Baseline Behavioral Surveillance Survey (BSS) found that overall awareness of HIV/AIDS in India is 76 percent, though variance among states is significant. There are also major urban-rural differentials. Gender differences are also striking: overall, 82 percent of men surveyed were aware of HIV/AIDS, whereas among women, this figure was 70 percent. The BSS found that awareness among SWs, MSM, and IDUs is much higher than in the general population. Overall, only 21 percent of general population respondents had no incorrect knowledge of HIV transmission. Among higher-risk groups, misperceptions were far less prevalent. Twenty-seven percent of MSM perceive themselves to be at very high risk of acquiring HIV. Among IDUs, 35 percent perceive themselves to be at very high risk of contracting HIV. Only 17 percent of sex workers perceive themselves to be at very high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS. Moreover, whereas 21 percent of brothel-based SWs perceived themselves at very high risk of HIV, only 14 percent of non-brothel-based SWs reported this level of perceived risk. The general population BSS found that nearly 7 percent of adults surveyed reported having sex with a nonregular partner in the last 12 months. The difference between men and women, however, was dramatic: 12 percent of men versus only 2 percent of women report having had sex with a nonregular partner. Thirty-two percent of these respondents reported consistent condom use with all nonregular partners. However, consistent condom use varied widely by state. Among MSM who had commercial sex in the month prior to the survey, 13 percent reported consistent condom use with commercial male partners. This contrasts dramatically with the 30 percent of MSM reporting consistent condom with a noncommercial male partner in the month prior to the survey. Among IDUs who reported sex with any nonregular partner in the 12 months prior to the survey, 12 percent reported using condoms consistently with these partners. Among sex workers, 50 percent reported consistent condom use with paying clients in the last 30 days (though the figure was higher for brothel-based [57 percent] vs. non-brothel-based [46 percent] SWs). However, among those who had sex with a nonpaying partner in the three months prior to the survey, only 21 percent reported using condoms consistently. Indian Penal Code 377, based on a 19th-century British law, criminalizes "the act of anal and oral sex performed either between two men or between a man and a woman."(There is currently a petition before the New Delhi High Court to repeal section 377. ) Homosexuality is a taboo topic in India, and MSM are severely marginalized. Several studies have found that men report their male-to-male sexual activities as masti (fun or play) or to initiate sexual experiences, and do not equate them with sexual identities such as "gay," "bisexual," or "homosexual." Data on MSM and TG in Mumbai have found that 17 percent of men and 68 percent of TG were HIV-positive. For both men and TG, HIV was significantly associated with syphilis, hepatitis C, and herpes. Twenty-two percent of MSM were married, and 44 percent had visited female sex workers. Although sex work is legal in some states, concomitant activities including soliciting and brothelkeeping are penalized. Poverty and marital abandonment are two reasons why women enter sex work. Many girls and women are also coerced into it. Human Rights Watch reports that Indian SWs are treated with contempt and commonly subjected to violations of their fundamental rights by the police, both at the time of their arrest and while in detention. HRW also documents increasing violence against outreach workers and peer educators who work with SWs (and MSM). The national BSS found that 61 percent of female SWs were illiterate. The percentage of brothel-based SWs who were illiterate was much higher (77 percent) than the percentage of illiterate non-brothel-based SWs (51 percent). Mumbai has the country's largest brothel-based sex industry, with over 15,000 sex workers. Between 62 and 70 percent of sex workers in Mumbai are HIV-positive. Because of complex power dynamics, reaching SWs with HIV prevention services is a major challenge. In 1992, the All India Institute of Hygiene and Public Health launched a program to reduce the transmission of HIV in Sonagachi, a red-light district in central Calcutta. The project began with two key interventions: a health clinic and outreach by peer educators. In 1992, consistent condom use with clients in Sonagachi was 1 percent. By 1998, this figure had reached 50 percent. During the same period, syphilis prevalence among SWs covered by the project fell from 25 to 11 percent. In 1998, HIV prevalence among SWs was 5 percent. A key element in the Sonagachi has been the participation of SWs in the project. The BSS found that 16 percent of MSM respondents reported consuming alcohol every day. Fifteen percent of respondents regularly drank alcohol prior to sex. Intoxicating drug use was reported by nearly 13 percent of respondents. The BSS also found that 22 percent of SWs reported daily alcohol consumption. About 15 percent of SWs reported that they drink regularly before sex. Six percent of SWs reported ever trying any addictive drugs. Among them, almost one-third had injected drugs in the past 12 months. The major drugs being abused in India are opium, heroin, morphine, buprenorphine, diazepam, cannabis, pheniramine, promethazine, nitrazepam, spasmorproxyvon, codeine phosphate, cocaine, ecstasy, amphetamine type stimulants, antihistamines, and codeine-based cough syrup. Epidemiological surveys and rapid assessment studies show that polydrug abuse is growing. The health of many drug users is often poor. Many IDUs do not inject properly and as a result experience ulcers, abscesses, cellulitis, and throbophlebitis. Many are undernourished, and a substantial number have experienced a drug overdose. The BSS found that among IDUs, 45.2 percent injected two to three times a day, whereas 16.1 percent injected more frequently. Fifty-three percent of respondents reported injecting buprenorphine, followed by heroin (34 percent), crack (22 percent), dextroproxyphene (6 percent), tranquilizers (3 percent), and cocktail of heroin and cocaine (1 percent). Forty-one percent of IDU respondents reported sharing (i.e., using) previously used needles/syringes. About 83 percent of respondents who cleaned needles/syringes in the past month reported using cold water for cleaning; 9 percent used hot water, 2 percent used bleach or alcohol, and 1 percent boiled needles/syringes. The majority of drug users in India are male. However, use of drug treatment data may underestimate the number of female drug users, with women addicts a hidden population. There is great stigma attached to women seeking assistance for drug use, and women's ability to access treatment is hindered by their myriad responsibilities and workloads (e.g., child care). Drug abuse by women in the northeast is believed to be growing. Impact India's life expectancy is projected to increase; however, AIDS will reduce life expectancy by 2 to 4 percent by 2050. By 2050, the U.N. projects that India's population will be 5 percent smaller than it would have been without AIDS. There were 2.8 million AIDS deaths in India between 1980 and 2000. During 2000-15, the U.N. projects that there will be 12.3 million AIDS deaths. During the late 1990s, researchers estimated that the total annual cost of HIV/AIDS in India was roughly equal to 1 percent of GDP. However, this figure did not include numerous factors such as the cost of ART, strengthening of the healthcare system, and the retraining of workers. Many households affected by HIV/AIDS face extreme economic and psychosocial difficulties in responding to the epidemic. AIDS treatment imposes a heavy financial burden on Indian families, leading to depletion of savings and increasing indebtedness of households. In India, AIDS care is being provided by elderly family members, women, and children. Obtaining data on the number of Indian children orphaned by AIDS is difficult. The magnitude of AIDS orphanhood has not been adequately acknowledged either in India or in the international community. Child vulnerability is already high in India, with large numbers of orphaned and displaced children, a growing number of street children, poor quality and overburdened child welfare institutions, and wide-scale abuse and exploitation of children. Although children are not yet being orphaned by HIV/AIDS on a large scale in most cities, studies in Mizoram and Calcutta demonstrate that the problem of orphans in some areas of India is already severe. The extended family is the traditional social security system for orphans in India. However, its ability¾as well as that of the larger community¾to assume care for orphans may be imperiled as HIV/AIDS spreads, household breadwinners die, and household resources become strained. Response In many ways, the government's response to the epidemic has been appropriate. In other respects, substantial material and political commitments have been too little and too late. After the first AIDS cases were identified in the U.S., the Indian Council of Medical Research established an AIDS task force. By 1986, surveillance centers designed to detect HIV were established at several medical colleges throughout metropolitan India. Following identification of HIV in India in1986, the government took steps to target screening and prevention efforts to populations at high risk of infection. A high-profile National AIDS Committee was launched, and in 1987 the National AIDS Control Program was established, focusing on increasing awareness of HIV/AIDS, screening blood for HIV, and testing of individuals with high-risk behaviors. By 1991, the government perceived a need to establish a multisectoral program for prevention and control of HIV/AIDS. There was also a need for an agency to help establish a state-level response to HIV/AIDS. To fulfill these objectives, the government established the National AIDS Control Organization in 1992. In 2001, the government adopted the National AIDS Prevention and Control Policy. Important among the government's interventions are programs of condom promotion, behavioral changes, community information and education, targeting and involvement of vulnerable groups at risk, blood safety, and STI treatment. In July 2003, Dr. Meenakshi Datta Ghosh, project director of NACO, stated that HIV/AIDS is no longer affecting only high-risk groups or urban populations, but "is gradually spreading into rural areas and the general population." In the eyes of many critics, the allocation of only $38.8 million of the government's own funds (excluding funds from the World Bank and other donors) over the period 1999-2004 is a major indication of insufficient governmental commitment. Critics also argue that there is inadequate governmental response in the area of IDU and MSM interventions. Although the national policy on HIV/AIDS addresses discrimination, there is no national legislation on HIV/AIDS-related discrimination to serve as an implementing instrument. Additional criticisms include the perception that although there has been much commitment to addressing HIV/AIDS at the national level, this commitment is not matched at the state level. Currently, approximately one-third of India's 35 states and UTs have what the World Bank deems "good" HIV-control programs, one-third are "making some effort," and one third "are not on board, but are in denial." nother frequent criticism of the government's efforts is that during the initial response phase, NACO was focused on centralized, top-down planning and implementation. This led to insufficient "buy-in" at the state level and to uneven implementation of projects in the different states. The country has 1,500 blood banks spread across large hospitals and small clinics, with quality varying among them. In June 2001, the government passed a law making it mandatory to test all donated blood for HIV, hepatitis C, hepatitis B, syphilis, and malaria. In December 2002, India's MOH announced that blood donors who tested positive for HIV would be told of their infection and asked to seek confirmatory tests and counseling. However, doctors working in blood transfusion services caution that the new policy will be difficult to implement given the current decentralized, fragmented state of blood banking services in India. NACO's budget for 1992 through 1998 was US$100 million, funded by government and external donors. For 1999-2004, NACO's budget is US$300 million. Of this amount, the government allocation is US$38.8 million; US$191 million is financed through a World Bank loan, and the remainder from other donor. India's federal budget caps the amount that foreign donors can contribute to HIV/AIDS. Thus, some Indian states have the capacity to absorb more resources but are denied them. The government argues that its control of resources ensures that no one disease receives favor over any other. Although the central government exerts considerable influence through the National Council of Education Research and Training, it has thus far not elaborated a concrete policy on an HIV curriculum. Persistent ambivalence about sex education has also impeded the full implementation of a population and family life education program begun in the early 1980s. Some state and municipal governments are implementing school-based-prevention programs, often in partnership with NGOs or multilateral donors such as UNICEF. India's National Cadet Corps has implemented an HIV/AIDS awareness program. The program, implemented at the National Integration Camp in Delhi, has trained 600 cadets from all over the country in basic HIV prevention. These cadets will be further trained as resource persons, and will be responsible for training other cadets upon returning to their states. Collaborations with the transport sector on HIV/AIDS prevention activities have been popular. However, the fragmented structure of the transport industry is a major constraint to identifying replicable approaches. In India, there is widespread discrimination against people infected with HIV. Indian PWHA have great difficulty accessing support and are usually unable to discuss their HIV status for fear of repercussions. There is no national legislation to protect the rights of Indians with HIV/AIDS. The number of HIV/AIDS-related court cases has been rising rapidly. In the absence of HIV/AIDS-related legislation, the role of the judiciary in the evolution of legal principles regarding the epidemic has become crucial. NACO has developed a VCT policy that states that "No individual should be made to undergo mandatory testing for HIV" and that "No mandatory HIV testing should be imposed as a precondition for employment or for provision of health care facilities during employment" (India's Armed Forces are exempt from this condition). NACO has also developed guidelines for VCT centers, which address consent and confidentiality issues. However, many Indians are tested for HIV without their knowledge or consent. Some government officials (including legislators in Goa and Andhra Pradesh) have voiced their support of mandatory premarital testing for HIV and are proposing related legislation. In 1998, India's Supreme Court delivered a judgment that suspended the right of PWHA to marry, despite that the issue of PWHA's marrying had never come before the Court. The Lawyers Collective HIV/AIDS Unit contested the constitutionality of the 1998 ruling regarding marriage. In early 2003, the Supreme Court passed an order that all observations relating to marriage in the 1998 case were not warranted as they were not issues before the Court. However, the case highlights the massive stigma and discrimination faced by PWHA in India and their vulnerability¾particularly given the lack of legal instruments¾to human rights abuses, including those perpetuated by governmental institutions. A July 2002 report from Human Rights Watch documented how HIV/AIDS projects, particularly those that provide essential information and services to SWs and MSM, are undermined by frequent and widespread police harassment and abuse of outreach workers. Major HIV/AIDS donors include the World Bank, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis & Malaria, DFID, USAID, CDC, NIH, UNDP, JICA, AusAID, Sida, GTZ, and the EU. Numerous NGOs and CBOs, including associations of PHWA, are providing critical HIV/AIDS prevention, care, and support information and services. Many are playing leadership roles in their state and districts, particularly with regard to reaching marginalized populations. Although about 600 NGOs receive financial and technical support from the government, academic institutions, and external donors, many more work without any such assistance. Much of the work of NGOs and CBOs has not been evaluated, an impediment to scaling up. Major international NGOs working on HIV/AIDS in India include the International HIV/AIDS Alliance, Family Health International, Population Council, Marie Stopes International, CEDPA, Médecins sans Frontières, and CARE. Numerous Indian and international academic and research institutes are undertaking crucial HIV/AIDS research, as well as providing HIV/AIDS prevention, care, and support information and services. India has over 265 public VCT centers at state and local level (primarily in high-prevalence states). Although the number of private laboratories (which utilize rapid tests) is increasing, these labs generally do not offer client counseling. In its GFATM proposal, the government states that it aims to establish a VCT center in each of the country's approximately 600 district hospitals. VCT is also incorporated into the proposal's plans for scaling up PMTCT and expanding access to ART. In March 2000, AZT was introduced in a PMTCT feasibility study supported by UNICEF and NACO in 11 medical colleges of the five most affected states. With GFATM funding, the government plans to scale up prevention and care interventions among women of child-bearing age and their families in partnership with the private sector by providing a package of primary prevention, family planning, VCT, NVP, and counseling on infant feeding. Specifically, the GFATM proposal sets out that PMTCT interventions will be scaled up from 81 public sector hospitals to 444 public and private, tertiary and secondary health institutions (primarily in the six high-prevalence states. Since the launch of the second phase of the National AIDS Control Program in 1999, the Indian government has established 25 community HIV/AIDS care centers across the country. With GFATM funding, it plans to create drop-in centers for PWHA in high-prevalence states. As in many countries, an enormous amount of HIV/AIDS care and support is provided by NGOs and CBOs, including associations of PWHA. Twelve percent of NACO's budget is allocated to care and support, including treatment of OIs. India's 2002 proposal to the GFATM states that only 1,500 PWHA are receiving (and adhering to) ART, and that another 8,000 to 10,000 are intermittent users or poorly adherent. ART has generally remained unaffordable for most Indians and has been prescribed primarily to those who can pay out of pocket or who are enrolled in research studies. To reduce prices, the government is making efforts to exempt customs and excise duty on all antiretroviral drugs available in India. Indian pharmaceutical firms are currently manufacturing generic versions of ART and selling them at less than US$1 a day. The manufacture of generic ART drugs has been an essential element in the dramatic reduction of drug prices. However, India is a member of the WTO, and its patent law will change on January 1, 2005. The effect will be to decrease the likelihood that Indian firms will be able to manufacture generic versions of additional ART drugs. This scenario will affect not only the cost of ART programs in India, but in countries to which Indian firms currently sell relatively inexpensive ART drugs. India's GFATM proposal delineates the government's plans for increasing access to ART. The emphasis is on PMTCT (including ART for HIV-positive mothers and their families). The proposal appears to state that beyond the 10,000 individuals projected to receive ART through the PMTCT program, an additional 15,000 PWHA will be receiving structured ART through the private sector by 2008. The GFATM proposal does not address the myriad constraints in the largely unregulated private health care sector that will affect ART provision, monitoring, and adherence. Concerns about adherence and the spread of resistant viral strains may be particularly pertinent in India because the generic, low-cost, triple-drug formulations available in India include NNRTIs such as nevirapine. Evidence suggests that an easily acquired single point mutation can confer resistance to all the agents in the NNRTI class when the virus becomes resistant to nevirapine alone. Many Indian doctors and government officials note that greater access to ART could lead, particularly in the largely unregulated private sector, to faulty prescription practices that might set the stage for the emergence of drug-resistant HIV strains. India's National AIDS Research Institute is actively involved in preclinical and clinical trials of microbicide candidates. Phase III multicenter trials of Buffer Gel, Pro2000, and Carraguard are planned for 2003. Other research institutions involved in microbicide research include the National Institute of Pharmacological Education and Research and the Institute for Research in Reproduction. In February 2002, Hindustan Latex Limited signed an agreement with the U.K.-based Female Health Company to market (and eventually produce) female condoms in India. The female condom would be priced at Rs 45 per piece (approx US$0.95). HLL is exploring commodity and funding assistance to subsidize the cost. There are numerous projects that seek to reduce HIV vulnerability (particularly of young women) through vocational education, literacy interventions, and income-generating activities. Since 2000, the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative has been working with the Indian Council of Medical Research and NACO to develop and evaluate AIDS vaccines in India. The National AIDS Research Institute in Pune will launch phase I trials of an AIDS vaccine in late 2003 or early 2004. Several private sector employer organizations are actively involved in HIV prevention, including the Confederation of Indian Industries, Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India, and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry. The ILO has an India HIV/AIDS project and is working with businesses, trade unions, and employer federations. ILO has documented the HIV/AIDS programs of several Indian businesses, which span awareness raising, training, condom distribution, VCT, and care & support. Some companies also offer treatment of STIs; some, treatment of OIs as well. Very few appear to offer ART. Among prominent companies with HIV/AIDS programs are Tata Tea, Ltd., Tata Steel, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Steel Authority of India Ltd. Epidemiology At a Glance: Summary Bullets Overview * The number of HIV infections in India is difficult to ascertain and the subject of ongoing controversy. In late July 2003, NACO released new figures indicating that there were between 3.82 million and 4.58 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS during 2002. NACO estimated that there were 610,000 new HIV infections in 2002. * UNAIDS estimated that between 2.6 million and 5.4 million Indians were living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 2001, with adult prevalence at 0.8 percent. * Low overall prevalence masks crucial differences among regions, states, and subpopulations. There are growing localized HIV epidemics in India. The heaviest impact of the epidemic is currently being felt in six states that have been classified as "high prevalence": Maharasthra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradhesh, Manipur, and Nagaland. * Moderate-prevalence states such as Gujarat and Goa also contain hard-hit districts. * The most recent surveillance data indicate that HIV transmission through unsafe blood/blood products and via injecting drug use is declining, whereas mother-to-child transmission is increasing. * Although HIV remains concentrated among marginalized groups such as sex workers, MSM, IDUs, and poor migrants, it is spreading rapidly within the general population. HSS * The first case of HIV infection in India was reported in 1986. In 1987, HIV sentinel surveillance and AIDS case identification was launched. * Initially, HIV spread among female sex workers and their male clients, STI clinic patients, and professional blood donors. It subsequently began to spread among populations including women attending antenatal clinics. NACO Estimates * NACO estimated that there were 3.5 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS in 1998. In 2001, NACO estimated that this figure had risen to 3.97 million. * In late July 2003, NACO released new figures indicating that there were between 3.82 million and 4.58 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS during 2002. NACO estimated that there were 610,000 new HIV infections in 2002. NACO also announced that 38.5 percent of Indians with HIV are women. * In July 2003, NACO announced that there has been a decline in HIV transmission through blood/blood products, from 6.07 percent of all new infections in 1999 to 2.99 percent in 2002. HIV transmission via IDU had also declined, from 5.29 percent of new infections in 1999 to 2.87 percent in 2002. The percent of HIV transmission attributed to mother-to-child transmission had increased, from 0.33 percent in 1999 to 2.61 percent in 2002. * It is difficult to determine actual prevalence among MSM in India, given that NACO has only recently collected data on MSM and in only two surveillance sites. * In July 2003, Dr. Meenakshi Datta Ghosh, project director of NACO, stated that HIV/AIDS is no longer affecting only high-risk groups or urban populations, as it "is gradually spreading into rural areas and the general population." Data Quality Issues * India' HIV prevalence estimates are based solely on sentinel surveillance conducted at public sites. The country has no national information system to collect HIV testing information * from the private sector, which provides over 80 percent of health care in the country. * Most Indian laboratories do not adhere to quality assurance standards for HIV testing. Overview The number of HIV infections in India is difficult to ascertain and the subject of ongoing controversy. In 2001, India's National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) estimated that there were 3.97 million Indians infected with HIV.1 UNAIDS published this figure in its July 2002 global update, but included an estimate range between 2.6 and 5.4 million.2 In late July 2003, on the eve of India's first Parliamentary Forum on HIV/AIDS, NACO released new figures indicating that there were between 3.82 million and 4.58 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS during 2002. NACO estimated that there were 610,000 new HIV infections in 2002. It also estimated that there had been 110,000 new infections in 2001; 180,000 in 2000; and 210,000 in 1999.3 A September 2002 report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council estimated that the current number of Indians infected with HIV is between 5 and 8 million and projected that this range will increase to 20 to 25 million by 2010.4 The NIC report did state that its projections entailed a "relatively high margin of error" and the data used to calculate these figures were not declassified. Because India has a population of 1.069 billion (mid-2003),5 the HIV/AIDS figures cited above represent relatively low prevalence among the adult population. According to UNAIDS, adult HIV prevalence was 0.8 percent at the end of 2001.6 However, low overall prevalence masks crucial differences among regions, states, and subpopulations. There are growing localized HIV epidemics in India.7 The most recent surveillance data indicate that HIV transmission through unsafe blood/blood products and via injecting drug use is declining, whereas mother-to-child transmission is increasing.8 Although HIV remains concentrated among marginalized groups such as sex workers, MSM, IDUs, and poor migrants, it is spreading rapidly within the general population. 9 Regional Classifications NACO classifies India's 35 states and union territories as "high," "moderate," or "low" HIV prevalence, based on the following definitions: 1. High prevalence states: HIV prevalence among women attending ANCs is 1 percent or above. Based on 2001 sentinel surveillance, these states currently include Maharasthra, Manipur, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Nagaland. 2. Moderate prevalence states: HIV prevalence among women attending ANCs is less than 1 percent and prevalence in STI and other high risk groups is 5 percent or above. 3. Low prevalence states: HIV prevalence among women attending ANCs is less than 1 percent and HIV prevalence among STI and other high-risk group is less than 5 percent. As seen in table 1 below, the heaviest impact of the epidemic is currently being felt in six states that have been classified as "high prevalence": Maharasthra in the western part of the country; Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradhesh in the south; and Manipur and Nagaland in the northeast. HIV Sentinel Surveillance NB: As mentioned above, in late July 2003, NACO announced new national HIV/AIDS figures in conjunction with the Parliamentary Forum on HIV/AIDS. As of August 5, 2003, NACO had not yet released any new surveillance or situational reports on its web site. The section below, therefore, draws heavily on the most recent round of HSS, which was conducted during August-October 2001. Once NACO releases new data, they will be integrated into this paper. Background The first case of HIV infection in India was reported in 1986 at Madras Medical College in Chennai.10 In 1987, HIV sentinel surveillance and AIDS case identification began in 62 public health centers and nine reference centers. Over the next six years, AIDS cases were reported in all states.11 Initially, HIV spread among female sex workers and their male clients, STI clinic patients, and professional blood donors (individuals who accept a monetary compensation in return for donating blood). It subsequently began to spread among populations including women attending antenatal clinics. By 1990, HIV prevalence among sex workers and STI clinic attendees in Maharashtra and among IDUs in Manipur had surpassed 5 percent. By 1994 in Maharashtra, HIV was no longer restricted to these subpopulations, but had spread to the general population. HIV was also spreading in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, where prevalence among high-risk groups was over 5 percent. 12 By 1998, HIV had spread rapidly in the four large southern states, not only within high-risk groups but also in the general population, where it was over 1 percent. Infection rates among women attending ANCs was 3.3 percent in Namakkal in Tamil Nadu and 5.3 percent in Churachandpur in Manipur. Among IDUs in Churachandpur, HIV prevalence was 76 percent and in Mumbai, 64.4 percent.13 In 1999, HIV prevalence in the ANC survey in Namakkal had risen to 6.5 percent. In some Mumbai sites, about 60 percent of sex workers were infected with HIV. HIV infection among STI patients was 30 percent in Andhra Pradesh and 14 to 60 percent in Maharashtra.14 By 2001, an estimated 15 to 35 percent of truck drivers nationwide were HIV-positive.15 HIV prevalence in the general population had surpassed 1 percent in six states (Maharasthra, Manipur, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Nagaland). These states accounted for 75 percent of the country's estimated HIV cases.16 Recent HSS In 1994, HSS was conducted in 55 sites, expanding to 180 sites in 1998. In 2000, there were 232 sites.17 India's HIV sentinel surveillance system uses anonymous, unlinked blood sample screening for HIV antibodies to estimate prevalence of HIV in various states and population groups. Surveys are now conducted annually, and survey sites include STI and antenatal clinics, as well as several sites that work with IDUs and MSM. The most recent round of HSS was conducted in 320 sites from August to October 2001. These sites include 135 STI clinics, 170 ANCs, 13 sites where IDUs were surveyed, and 2 sites for MSM (in Mumbai and Chennai) (table 1). Table 1. HIV Prevalence by State, 2001 S.N. State/UT Number of Sites HIV Prevalence 2001 (%) 1 Andhra Pd. STD 4 ANC 9 26.60 1.50 2 Arunachal Pd. STD 2 ANC 1 0.00 0.00 3 Assam STD 2 ANC 3 1.49 0.00 4 Bihar STD 5 ANC 7 1.20 0.13 5 Chattisgarh STD 3 ANC 5 1.40 0.33 6. Delhi STD 4 ANC 4 IDU 1 4.65 0.13 - 7 Goa STD 2 ANC 2 CSW 1 15.00 0.50 50.79 8 Gujarat STD 8 ANC 7 4.14 0.50 9 Haryana STD 4 ANC 3 1.08 0.41 10 Himachal Pd. STD 5 ANC 7 0.26 0.13 11 Jammu & Kashmir STD 2 ANC 3 0.80 0.25 12 Jharkhand STD 3 ANC 6 0.25 0.08 13 Karnataka STD 7 ANC 10 IDU 1 16.40 1.13 2.00 14 Kerala STD 3 ANC 3 6.42 0.08 15 Madhya Pd. STD 6 ANC 10 2.69 0.25 16 Maharashtra & Mumbai STD 9 ANC 14 IDU 1 MSM 1 CSW 1 9.20 1.75 41.38 23.60 52.26 18 Manipur IDU 3 STD 2 ANC2 56.26 10.50 1.75 19 Meghalaya IDU 1 STD 2 ANC 2 1.39 0.00 0.00 20 Mizoram IDU 1 STD 2 ANC 3 2.00 2.20 0.33 21 Nagaland IDU 2 STD 1 ANC 4 5.50 7.40 1.25 22 Orissa STD 7 ANC 4 0.80 0.25 23 Punjab STD 3 ANC 4 1.61 0.40 24 Rajasthan STD 6 ANC 6 4.00 0.00 25 Sikkim STD 1 ANC 2 0.00 0.00 26 Tamil Nadu STD 5 ANC 10 IDU 1 MSM 1 12.60 1.13 24.56 2.40 27 Tripura STD 1 ANC 1 IDU 1 3.20 0.25 - 28 Uttar Pd. STD 10 ANC 11 0.90 0.00 29 Uttranchal STD 4 ANC 2 0.40 0.00 30 West Bengal STD 6 ANC 8 IDU 1 0.60 0.13 - 31 A &N Islands STD 1 ANC 3 1.20 0.16 32 Chandigarh STD 2 ANC 1 3.78 0.00 33 D & N Haveli ANC 1 0.25 34 Daman & Diu ANC 2 0.25 35 L'dweep STD 1 ANC 2 - - 36 Pondicherry STD 3 ANC 1 2.00 0.25 Notes: 1.HIV prevalence values in states with over three sites are median values, whereas in states/UTs with three or fewer sites, the values are mean values. 2. Sites with 75 percent coverage of desired sample size (STI: 250; ANC: 400) are included for analysis. Source: NACO. HIV/AIDS Indian Scenario: HIV Estimates for Year 2001. New Delhi: n.d. As table 2 shows, high-prevalence states include some districts that have been particularly hard hit. Moderate-prevalence states such as Gujarat and Goa also contain hard-hit districts. Table 2. Districts with High Prevalence of HIV among STI Patients, IDUs, and ANC Attendees, 2001 S. No State/UT District 1. Andhra Pradesh (7) Hyderabad Vishakhapatnam Guntur East Godavari Chittoor Kurnool Warrangal 2. Goa (1) South-Goa 3. Gujarat (3) Ahmedabad Surat Baroda 4. Karnataka (10) Bangalore Mysore Dharwad(Hubli) Bellary Belgaum Gulbarga Dakshin Kannada (Mangalore) Udipi Bijapur Shyamraj Nagar (Kollegal) 5. Maharashtra (14) Nagpur Sangli Pune Aurangabad Chandrapur Latur Ratnagiri Kolhapur Nasik Satara Solapur Thane Mumbai Jalgaon 6. Manipur (4) Imphal Churachandpur Bishnupur Thoubal 7. Nagaland (3) Kohima Tuensang Mokok Chung 8. Tamil Nadu (7) Madurai Trichy Salem Coimbatore Namakkal Tirunelveli Chennai Source: NACO. HIV/AIDS Indian Scenario: HIV Estimates for Year 2001. New Delhi: n.d. Latest NACO Estimates NACO estimated that there were 3.5 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS in 1998. In 1999 and 2000, this figure rose to3.7 million and 3.86 million, respectively. In 2001, NACO estimated that there were 3.97 million Indians infected with HIV.18 In late July 2003, NACO released new figures indicating that there were between 3.82 million and 4.58 million Indians living with HIV/AIDS during 2002. NACO also announced that 38.5 percent of Indians with HIV are women.19 NACO estimated that there were 610,000 new HIV infections in 2002.20 For previous years, it estimated that there had been 110,000 new infections in 2001; 180,000 in 2000; and 210,000 in 1999.21 (Prior to the release of the July 2003 figures, NACO had believed that the HIV/AIDS epidemic in India might be plateauing, given its 1999-2001 data on number of new infections.22) Transmission Patterns In October 2002, NACO released a study of cumulative AIDS cases reported since 1986. It found that 84 percent of HIV infections were transmitted sexually. Perinatal transmission accounted for 2.6 percent of infections, IDU 2.93 percent, and unsafe blood and blood products, 3.01 percent. NACO was unable to ascertain mode of transmission in 7.46 percent of cases.23 Data on occupational exposure are poor. 24 In July 2003, NACO announced that there has been a decline in HIV transmission through blood/blood products, from 6.07 percent of all new infections in 1999 to 2.99 percent in 2002. At that time, NACO also announced that HIV transmission via IDU had also declined, from 5.29 percent of new infections in 1999 to 2.87 percent in 2002. The percent of HIV transmission attributed to mother-to-child transmission had increased, from 0.33 percent in 1999 to 2.61 percent in 2002. 25 Patterns of HIV differ by subregion. Among high-prevalence states such as Maharasthra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradhesh, heterosexual transmission reportedly accounts for the majority of HIV infections, whereas injection drug use has been driving the epidemic in Manipur and Nagaland. Nevertheless, prevalence among IDUs are also high in Tamil Nadu and Maharasthra (24.56 and 41.38 percent, respectively). 26 It is difficult to determine actual prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in India, given that NACO has only recently collected data on MSM and in only two surveillance sites. In 2001, MSM prevalence was 24 percent in Mumbai (Maharasthra) and 2.4 in Chennai (Tamil Nadu). Many public health professionals working in the area of male-to-male transmission have noted that the 3:1 proportion of male-to-female HIV cases does not fit with the reported prevalence of heterosexual transmission, given that male-to-female transmission is much more efficient than transmission from women to men. They therefore suggest that male-to-male transmission and/or the number of infections among women are underreported. UNAIDS Estimates At the end of 2001, UNAIDS estimated that 3.97 million Indian adults and children were living with HIV/AIDS (estimate range: 2.6 million to 5.4 million) Of them, 3.8 million were adults (ages 15 to 49), with adult prevalence at 0.8 percent.27 (At the end of 1999, UNAIDS estimated adult prevalence at 0.7 percent.28) There were 170,000 Indian children (ages 0 to 14) living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 2001.29 Using the most recent NACO figures indicates that India accounted for 87 percent (610,000) of the 700,000 new HIV infections that occurred during 2002 in South & Southeast Asia.30 UNAIDS estimated that of adults infected with HIV during 2001, 1.5 million (39.5 percent) were women. (At the end of 1999, UNAIDS estimated that 37.14 percent of adults infected with HIV were women.31) At the end of 2001, HIV prevalence among women ages 15 to 24 ranged from 0.46 to 0.96 percent; the comparable range for men in the same age group was 0.22 to 0.46 percent. 32 AIDS Cases In October 2002, NACO published data on the number of AIDS cases reported to date (table 3). Data for the most recent month suggest that the proportion of reported female AIDS cases is increasing (from approximately 25 percent of the cumulative total, versus 35 percent of cases in October 2002). 33 In July 2003, NACO announced that 38.5 percent of Indians with HIV are women.34 NACO's October 2002 data indicate that slightly over half (53 percent) of reported AIDS cases were diagnosed among individuals 30-44 years; 36 percent of cases were diagnosed among 15- to 29-year-olds. 35 The three states with the highest absolute numbers of reported AIDS cases were Tamil Nadu, Maharasthra, and Andhra Pradesh (representing 44, 21, and 5 percent, respectively of the national total). Table 3. Reported AIDS Cases, October 2002 AIDS CASES IN INDIA Cumulative This Month MALES 31230 587 FEMALES 10376 311 Total 41606 898 RISK/TRANSMISSION CATEGORIES No. of cases Percentage Sexual 35075 84.30 Perinatal transmission 1082 2.60 Blood and blood products 1251 3.01 Injectable Drug Users 1217 2.93 History not available 2981 7.16 Total: 41606 100.00 Age group Male Female Total 0 - 14 yrs 989 603 1592 15 - 29 yrs. 10114 4800 14914 30 - 44 yrs. 17598 4339 21937 > 45 yrs. 2529 634 3163 Total 31230 10376 41606 S. No. State/UT AIDS Cases 1 Andhra Pradesh 2157 2 Assam 149 3 Arunachal Pradesh 0 4 A & N Islands 24 5 Bihar 145 6 Chandigarh (UT) 618 7 Delhi 713 8 Daman & Diu 1 9 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 0 10 Goa 115 11 Gujarat 1925 12 Haryana 247 13 Himachal Pradesh 104 14 Jammu & Kashmir 2 15 Karnataka 1551 16 Kerala 267 17 Lakshadweep 0 18 Madhya Pradesh 918 19 Maharashtra 8723 20 Orissa 82 21 Nagaland 274 22 Manipur 1238 23 Mizoram 34 24 Meghalaya 8 25 Pondicherry 157 26 Punjab 211 27 Rajasthan 543 28 Sikkim 4 29 Tamil Nadu 18276 30 Tripura 5 31 Uttar Pradesh 753 32 West Bengal 930 33 Ahemdabad M.C 267 34 Mumbai M.C 1165 Total: 41606 Source: NACO. Accessed October 2002. AIDS Mortality The U.N. Population Division's most recent projections of AIDS mortality are found in tables 4 and 5. They indicate that by 2000, there had been 2.8 million AIDS deaths in India. Table 4. India: Projected Number of Deaths with and without AIDS, 1980-2000, 2000-2015, and 2015-2050 Period 1980-2000 2000-2015 2015-2050 With AIDS Without AIDS With AIDS Without AIDS With AIDS Without AIDS 182,307,000 179,533,000 140,546,000 128,295,000 452,901,000 403,398,000 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. Highlights. New York: February 2003 Table 5. India: Excess Deaths Because of AIDS, 1980-2000, 2000-2015, and 2015-2050 Period 1980-2000 2000-2015 2015-2050 Excess Deaths Percentage Increase Excess Deaths Percentage Increase Excess Deaths Percentage Increase 2,774,000 2 12,251,000 10 49,503,000 12 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. Highlights. New York: February 2003 See the Impact section for more detailed discussion. National Prevalence Trends Although India's HIV/AIDS epidemic varies widely among regions, it is spreading rapidly along coastal areas and inland, affecting all parts of the country, both rural and urban. Solomon and Ganesh of YRG Care, a major NGO discussed throughout this paper, note that early descriptions of HIV created a general perception that HIV infection was largely restricted to sex workers, truckers, and IDUs. They underscore that the so-called general population was¾and in many cases, still is¾in denial. 36 UNAIDS also notes that the perception of risk among the general population is still low.37 In high-prevalence states, HIV is increasing in rural areas.38 Yet many in rural areas¾where 72 percent of India's population lives39 ¾ believe that HIV/AIDS is an urban disease.40 As the data above demonstrated, the percent of adult HIV infections among women is increasing. The most recent data from NACO indicate that 38.5 percent of Indians with HIV are women.41 HIV prevalence among monogamous women is increasing through unprotected sex with infected spouses.42 Despite this scenario, interventions have tended to focus on "high-risk" communities, ignoring monogamous women. Rural women are particularly vulnerable to acquiring HIV, given that, among other reasons, they cannot easily access information on HIV/AIDS. 43 (See the Gender section for further discussion.) Perhaps the single most important question concerning national prevalence trends is whether the epidemic will pass a "tipping point." This tipping point represents the transition from an epidemic that is largely confined to high-risk groups to one that has spread into the general population. Once this transiting has occurred, the epidemic is far more difficult to control and the scale of devastation will be far greater. As mentioned above, the most recent surveillance data indicate that HIV transmission through unsafe blood/blood products and via IDU is declining, whereas mother-to-child transmission is increasing.44 In July 2003, Dr. Meenakshi Datta Ghosh, project director of NACO, stated that HIV/AIDS is no longer affecting only high-risk groups or urban populations, as it "is gradually spreading into rural areas and the general population." 45 (See the Response section for more detailed discussion.) State-level Analyses Karnataka Among states, only Karnataka has published HIV sentinel surveillance data disaggregated by sociodemographic markers. In 1999 and 2000, Karnataka included 14 sites in its HIV sentinel surveillance. Four additional sites were included in 2001. Sites comprise seven STI clinics, one IDU-specific site, and 10 ANC sites. Results obtained in 2001 indicated that the highest HIV prevalence was found in STI clinics (mean prevalence: 16.7 percent), followed by the IDU site (2 percent). Mean prevalence among ANCs was 1.4 percent, suggesting that HIV had spread to the general population and placing Karnataka in the "high prevalence" group of states. However, these mean values obscure significant differences within the state. For example, three districts reported HIV prevalence at ANCs of 1 to 1.9 percent and four districts (Bangalore, Chamrajnagar, Bijapur, and Raichur) reported ANC prevalences of 2 percent or greater. The four districts with ANC prevalence of 2 percent or above are located in the southern part of the state, in and around Bangalore, on the border with Tamil Nadu, or in northern Karnataka's "devadasi belt." 46 Devadasi women have historically been dedicated to divine service. This service has evolved into a temple-based sex industry. Many women from this part of the country are "supplied" to the sex trade in large cities such as Mumbai.47 (See box 1 for links regarding the "devadasi belt.") Within Karnataka, HIV prevalence was highest among illiterate individuals (this finding was particularly strong within the ANC sites) and migrant workers. Among ANC attendees, prevalence was highest in rural sites and among women whose husbands were in an agricultural or unskilled occupation. Among STI patients, the highest prevalence was found in rural and urban men (20.8 percent and 18 percent, respectively), and among older men and younger women. Among female STI patients under age 20, HIV prevalence was 15.5 percent, increasing to 18 percent in women between 20 and 29, and decreasing to 9.8 percent in women ages 30-44. The opposite pattern was seen in male STI patients: only 6.7 percent of men under 20 were HIV-positive, whereas prevalence increased to 16.4 percent in 20- to 29-year-olds and to 22.1 percent among those ages 30-44.48 Data Quality Issues Conducting HIV sentinel surveillance in a country as enormous and diverse as India is a massive task. NACO must be commended for carrying out HSS and for adding sites that target IDUs and MSM, in addition to ANCs and STI clinics. (A guide to interpreting ANC data is found in box 2.) However, there are several issues that should be noted with regard to the quality of India's HSS data. India' HIV prevalence estimates are based solely on sentinel surveillance conducted at public sites. The country has no national information system to collect HIV testing information from clinical laboratories in the private sector. 49 (As discussed in the next section, the private sector accounts for an increasingly large share of health care provision in India. In 2000, India's public spending on health was 0.9 percent of GDP, whereas private expenditures on health accounted for 4.0 percent of GDP.50 ) Another issue involves the characteristics of those being tested. Some researchers note that individuals dying from opportunistic infections associated with HIV are generally not being tested, and thus prevalence may be underestimated .51 , 52 However, this scenario may be changing with the increase in the number of VCT sites (see below), such that a larger proportion of people who are being tested are symptomatic.53 Solomon and Ganesh also stress that most Indian laboratories do not adhere to quality assurance standards for HIV testing. HIV test results are often inaccurate for several reasons: test kits are used after expiration dates; kits are not stored at the correct temperature; electricity is shut down at night; air-conditioning for the testing equipment is erratic; poor-quality water is used; and equipment is often recycled. 54 Political Economy and Sociobehavioral Context At a Glance: Summary Bullets Overview * India is the world's largest democracy. Its mid-2003 population was 1.07 billion. * In recent decades, India has significantly improved the well-being of its people. Despite achievements, however, the scope of poverty continues to be enormous. Economy * Structural adjustment measures launched in the 1990s have had some highly beneficial effects on the Indian economy, including higher growth rates, lower inflation, and significant increases in foreign investment. However, both the central and state governments are currently facing a deteriorating fiscal situation. * Moreover, vast income disparities between and within India's states persist and poverty reduction remains paramount. In 2001, gross national income per capita was US$480. This figure is somewhat higher than that for the South Asia region and for all low-income countries. However, globally, India's GNI per capita ranks 162 (of a total 208 countries). * Structural adjustment sought to shift more health care delivery to the private sector. Public spending on health, as a percent of GDP, did not rise during the 1990s (0.9 percent), whereas private expenditure on health now accounts for 4.0 percent of GDP, or 81.6 percent of all health spending. * There is an increasing gap between rich and poor states with regard to public resources available for health, with resultant disparities in health outcomes. * A major concern is that as the central government reduces its role in health care delivery, with decentralization and privatization to fill the gap, safety nets for the poor (especially those in rural areas and women) are being threatened. This scenario is particularly worrisome as the ability of state governments to provide basic health care is imperiled, given their current and severe fiscal problems Poverty * There has been intense debate regarding recent poverty trends in India. The emerging consensus appears to be that there was some decline in poverty during the 1990s, but the size of the decline remains unclear. Richer states grew faster over the 1990s and may have also been more successful at reducing poverty. * Poverty is increasingly concentrated in the poorest states, particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Madhya Pradesh. * Using international poverty markers, in 1997, 44.2 of the population lived on less than US$1 a day, and 86.2 percent lived on less than US$2 a day. Governance Decentralization * Constitutional amendments in 1993 provided a legal foundation to local governments and sought to strengthen participatory processes at the local level. These amendments included a mandatory requirement that one-third of local representatives be women, and that seats be reserved for scheduled castes and tribes in proportion to their population. * However, commitment to decentralization has varied by state, as has capacity to strengthen local government. Corruption * Corruption in India is systemic. With decentralization, states are increasingly responsible for addressing corruption, though whether they have adequate resources (in addition to political will) to do so is unclear. Judiciary * The Indian judicial system is impeded by: ? enormous backlogs ? extremely slow processing times ? some degree of corruption at the state level ? low level of knowledge about new aspects of the law ? weak enforcement of decisions * Unable to persuade the executive or legislative branches to take action, many Indian NGOs are increasingly using public interest litigation to defend rights. Some of these cases have involved the rights of PWHA. Violence * Over the past several years, India has experienced a significant increase in organized and random violence, particularly communal, ethnic, tribal, and caste-based violence. * Kashmir is the largest threat to regional security in South Asia. * Ethnic violence can, inter alia, spur significant population dislocation and regroupings of family units, which entail exposure to new sexual networks and thus may heighten vulnerability to HIV. It also affects state and local government's ability to deliver essential services. Population Mobility * There is enormous population mobility in India and throughout South Asia. Mobile populations include ? permanent and seasonal labor migrants within the country ? those entering and leaving India for work-related reasons ? people dislocated by drought, floods, or other disasters ? people dislocated by conflict ? refugees seeking asylum in India ? transport workers ? traders/vendors ? hotel and tourism workers ? tourists (e.g., temple tourists) ? prisoners ? military personnel ? sex workers ? trafficked persons ? MSM * India has a long history of mobility. During colonial rule, the British moved segments of the population to Sri Lanka, Malaya, and other countries to work on plantations. * Movement of unskilled workers increased during the 1970s, including to the Gulf states, which sought cheap labor. * According to the 1993 National Sample Survey in India, 24.7 percent of the population had migrated, either within India, to neighboring countries, or overseas. * Labor migration is a common livelihood strategy in India. * The communities from which migrants emigrate are vulnerable to HIV for several reasons. While their male partners are away for long periods (and particularly if they do not send regular remittances), some women may rely on sex work to supplement household income. Returning migrants with HIV, many of whom do not know their status, may infect their wives or other sex partners in the home community. * Recent data on female-to-male sex ratios in urban and rural areas suggest that many more men than women have migrated to urban areas. Urbanization has resulted in large slum populations. * India is a country of origin, transit, and destination for thousands of trafficked persons. Health * Over the past several decades, India has made significant progress in improving health and well-being. * Despite achievements, the country continues to bear a heavy burden of both communicable and noncommunicable diseases. There are myriad challenges within the health sector, including the generally poor quality of services delivered by both the public and private sectors. * India's state governments are primarily responsible for health care, although some national health programs (including HIV/AIDS) are supported by central government funds. * The public health infrastructure is vast, comprising 600 district hospitals, 4,000 community health centers, 25,000 primary health centers, 137,000 subcenters, and 160 medical colleges. * Public health facilities suffer from poor management, low-quality service, and underfunding. * There is large variance in health financing among Indian states, and the gap between rich and poor states regarding public resources for health is increasing. * Sixty-five percent of Indian households go to private hospitals/clinics or doctors for treatment when a family member falls ill. Only 29 percent normally use the public health sector. Even among poor households, only 34 percent normally use the public health sector when family members become ill. * Only 10 percent of Indians have some form of insurance, most of which are inadequate. * The World Bank argues that the private health sector in India is unlikely to substantially improve the health and nutritional status of the poor. The private sector remains virtually unregulated and has highly variable quality of care. * However, the government's response to HIV/AIDS, at least with regard to ART, is predicated on strong partnerships with the private sector. Tuberculosis * According to WHO, India continues to have the world's highest burden of TB. Each year, there are an estimated 2 million new TB cases in India, representing about one-third of the global TB burden. TB remains the country's leading cause of death; annually, about half a million Indians die because of TB. * WHO estimates that 4.0 percent of adult (15-49) TB cases were HIV-positive during 2001. An estimated 3.4 percent of new cases that year were multidrug-resistant. * TB is the most common opportunistic infection in India. * India has had a national TB control program since 1962. In 1993, the government designed the Revised National TB Control Program (RNTCP). In 1997, DOTS was launched. In 2003, RNTCP reported that during the first quarter of that year, DOTS coverage increased to about 62 percent. * In 2001, a joint action plan on HIV/AIDS and TB was created, though WHO notes that concrete strategies to link the two do not yet exist. WHO highlights other constraints in the TB system, including: ? lack of confidence in government TB services due to poor services in the past ? vacancies of key staff, especially laboratory technicians ? poor quality services and poor results in the private sector ? lack of full involvement of medical colleges ? poor drug distribution to local level ? ineffective lab quality control ? lack of local electrical supply Sexual and Reproductive Health * UNFPA ranks India a category "A" country, meaning that it is furthest from achieving the sexual and reproductive health and rights goals of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo in 1994. Group A countries have the greatest need for external assistance and the lowest capabilities for mobilizing domestic resources to close this gap. Sexually Transmitted Infections * Several studies indicate that herpes simplex virus-2 may be fueling the HIV epidemic in India. Stigma and Discrimination * HIV/AIDS-related stigma in India is severe. Stigma and discrimination are most often encountered in the health care setting and, to a lesser but still significant extent, in family and community contexts. * AIDS stigma and discrimination in India are often a gendered phenomenon. Women are often blamed by their in-laws for infecting their husbands. In addition, HIV-positive women are more likely to take care of their husbands, neglecting their own health. After having been the primary caregivers for their husbands, many women are asked to leave the house of their in-laws after their husband die. * Studies have also detailed how in addition to female sex workers, MSM and transgenders with HIV/AIDS experience double discrimination. Gender * Indian women's legal rights have generally not been implemented. * India's sex imbalance is related to the comparative neglect of female health and nutrition, particularly during childhood. Other factors include increasing cases of sex-selective abortions (illegal but widespread); female infanticide; violence against women; suttee (wherein a widow is burned to death on her husband's cremation pyre, an illegal act); dowry murders (wherein a woman is killed due to insufficient gifts/money given by her parents at the time of her wedding); and discrimination in access to health care, nutrition, and employment opportunities. * Despite socioeconomic changes, preference for sons continues in India. * There are acute gender disparities in literacy and education. * Forty-eight percent of ever-married women are not involved in making decisions about their own health care. * There are significant and persistent gaps between women's legal rights and their actual ownership and control of land. * About 20 percent of ever-married women have experienced beatings or physical mistreatment since age 15 and at least one in nine have experienced such violence in the last year. Most of these women have been beaten or physically mistreated by their husbands. * Prior to HIV/AIDS, there were already strong gender biases in access to health care. Recent studies have found when both a husband and wife are infected with HIV/AIDS, men routinely receive care and treatment ahead of their wives. Lack of money and distance to treatment are also constraints to HIV-positive women's ability to access care. Awareness and Knowledge of HIV/AIDS * The National Baseline Behavioral Surveillance Survey (BSS) found that overall awareness of HIV/AIDS in India is 76 percent, though variance among states is significant. There are also major urban-rural differentials. * Gender differences are also striking: overall, 82 percent of men surveyed were aware of HIV/AIDS, whereas among women, this figure was 70 percent. * The BSS found that awareness among SWs, MSM, and IDUs is much higher than in the general population. Misperceptions * Overall, only 21 percent of general population respondents had no incorrect knowledge of HIV transmission. Among higher-risk groups, misperceptions were far less prevalent. Perception of Risk * Twenty-seven percent of MSM perceive themselves to be at very high risk of acquiring HIV. Among IDUs, 35 percent perceive themselves to be at very high risk of contracting HIV. * Only 17 percent of sex workers perceive themselves to be at very high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS. Moreover, whereas 21 percent of brothel-based SWs perceived themselves at very high risk of HIV, only 14 percent of non-brothel-based SWs reported this level of perceived risk. Sexual Behavior * The general population BSS found that nearly 7 percent of adults surveyed reported having sex with a nonregular partner in the last 12 months. The difference between men and women, however, was dramatic: 12 percent of men versus only 2 percent of women report having had sex with a nonregular partner. * Thirty-two percent reported consistent condom use with all nonregular partners. However, consistent condom use varied widely by state. * Among MSM who had commercial sex in the month prior to the survey, 13 percent reported consistent condom use with commercial male partners. This contrasts dramatically with the 30 percent of MSM reporting consistent condom with a noncommercial male partner in the month prior to the survey. * Among IDUs who reported sex with any nonregular partner in the 12 months prior to the survey, 12 percent reported using condoms consistently with these partners. * Among sex workers, 50 percent reported consistent condom use with paying clients in the last 30 days (though the figure was higher for brothel-based [57 percent] vs. non-brothel-based [46 percent] SWs). However, among those who had sex with a nonpaying partner in the three months prior to the survey, only 21 percent reported using condoms consistently. MSM * Indian Penal Code 377, based on a 19th-century British law, criminalizes "the act of anal and oral sex performed either between two men or between a man and a woman."(There is currently a petition before the New Delhi High Court to repeal section 377. ) Homosexuality is a taboo topic in India, and MSM are severely marginalized. * Several studies have found that men report their male-to-male sexual activities as masti (fun or play) or to initiate sexual experiences, and do not equate them with sexual identities such as "gay," "bisexual," or "homosexual." * Data on MSM and TG in Mumbai have found that 17 percent of men and 68 percent of TG were HIV-positive. For both men and TG, HIV was significantly associated with syphilis, hepatitis C, and herpes. Twenty-two percent of MSM were married, and 44 percent had visited female sex workers. Sex Work * Although sex work is legal in some states, concomitant activities including soliciting and brothelkeeping are penalized. * Poverty and marital abandonment are two reasons why women enter sex work. Many girls and women are also coerced into it. * Human Rights Watch reports that Indian SWs are treated with contempt and commonly subjected to violations of their fundamental rights by the police, both at the time of their arrest and while in detention. HRW also documents increasing violence against outreach workers and peer educators who work with SWs (and MSM). * The national BSS found that 61 percent of female SWs were illiterate. The percentage of brothel-based SWs who were illiterate was much higher (77 percent) than the percentage of illiterate non-brothel-based SWs (51 percent). * Mumbai has the country's largest brothel-based sex industry, with over 15,000 sex workers. Between 62 and 70 percent of sex workers in Mumbai are HIV-positive. * SWs in Mumbai are controlled by madams, pimps, and moneylenders. Because of complex power dynamics, reaching SWs with HIV prevention services is a major challenge. * In 1992, the All India Institute of Hygiene and Public Health launched a program to reduce the transmission of HIV in Sonagachi, a red-light district in central Calcutta. The project began with two key interventions: a health clinic and outreach by peer educators. * In 1992, consistent condom use with clients in Sonagachi was 1 percent. By 1998, this figure had reached 50 percent. During the same period, syphilis prevalence among SWs covered by the project fell from 25 to 11 percent. In 1998, HIV prevalence among SWs was 5 percent. * A key element in the Sonagachi has been the participation of SWs in the project. Alcohol and Drug Use Alcohol * The BSS found that 16 percent of MSM respondents reported consuming alcohol every day. Fifteen percent of respondents regularly drank alcohol prior to sex. Intoxicating drug use was reported by nearly 13 percent of respondents. * The BSS also found that 22 percent of SWs reported daily alcohol consumption. About 15 percent of SWs reported that they drink regularly before sex. Six percent of SWs reported ever trying any addictive drugs. Among them, almost one-third had injected drugs in the past 12 months. Illicit Drug Use * The major drugs being abused in India are opium, heroin, morphine, buprenorphine, diazepam, cannabis, pheniramine, promethazine, nitrazepam, spasmorproxyvon, codeine phosphate, cocaine, ecstasy, amphetamine type stimulants, antihistamines, and codeine-based cough syrup. * Epidemiological surveys and rapid assessment studies show that polydrug abuse is growing. * The health of many drug users is often poor. Many IDUs do not inject properly and as a result experience ulcers, abscesses, cellulitis, and throbophlebitis. Many are undernourished, and a substantial number have experienced a drug overdose. * The BSS found that among IDUs, 45.2 percent injected two to three times a day, whereas 16.1 percent injected more frequently. Fifty-three percent of respondents reported injecting buprenorphine, followed by heroin (34 percent), crack (22 percent), dextroproxyphene (6 percent), tranquilizers (3 percent), and cocktail of heroin and cocaine (1 percent). * The BSS found that 41 percent of IDU respondents reported sharing (i.e., using) previously used needles/syringes. About 83 percent of respondents who cleaned needles/syringes in the past month reported using cold water for cleaning; 9 percent used hot water, 2 percent used bleach or alcohol, and 1 percent boiled needles/syringes. * The majority of drug users in India are male. However, use of drug treatment data may underestimate the number of female drug users, with women addicts a hidden population. There is great stigma attached to women seeking assistance for drug use, and women's ability to access treatment is hindered by their myriad responsibilities and workloads (e.g., child care). Drug abuse by women in the northeast is believed to be growing. In a paper prepared for the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics & Health, David Bloom of Harvard and his colleagues note that: Existing data provide some indication that the relationship between poverty and HIV is growing stronger over time, both between and within continents. But it is not possible to infer causality from these data. That is, it is difficult to tell whether poverty causes AIDS or vice versa¾or whether another variable, such as war, inadequate health, or poor education, explains the relationship....In sum, the link between economic status and AIDS is complex. While many micro level studies point to a significant link between poverty and HIV prevalence rates, macro data is unconvincing, particularly in terms of the causality of the link. Some risk factors for HIV, such as a high level of disposable income, are more prevalent amongst the rich than the poor. Others, such as lack of education, are more prevalent among the poor than the rich. Both groups exhibit the kind of mobility that appears to be associated with HIV transmission. On balance, it seems plausible that the rich are more at risk in the early stages of an epidemic, and that a combination of factors, including lack of education and other economic exigencies, put the poor at increasing risk as an epidemic progresses....The connection between AIDS and economics is complex, and drawing firm conclusions is complicated by the lack of concrete data in many areas. The poor appear to be most vulnerable to AIDS, but it is possible that this is not just because they are poor, but because of the interaction between poverty and other factors such as poor education, migration and weak health systems. Poverty reduction may decrease risk from the epidemic, but it is also possible that ill-planned development efforts will temporarily increase the risk that poor people face. 55 Håkan Björkman, a senior adviser on HIV/AIDS to UNDP's Bureau for Development Policy, states that: HIV/AIDS is not strictly speaking a "disease of poverty" as it affects people at all income levels. But evidence from some countries at advanced states of the epidemic shows that new HIV infections disproportionately affect poor people, unskilled workers, and those lacking literacy skills¾esp. young women in each of these categories. The relationship among poverty, gender, and HIV vulnerability has important policy implications.56 (NACO, Yale, Harvard, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Delhi University are analyzing societal-level variables to determine the extent to which these variables can explain the different HIV rates across India's districts. These variables include GNI per capita; percentage foreign-born in the population; religion; income equality; male-female literacy gap; sex ratio; and percentage of male population in military forces. Once findings are available, they will be included here. ) This section does not seek to demonstrate causality; rather, it aims to analyze key political economy and sociobehavioral contextual elements to highlight the range of sectoral policies and interventions that may affect or be affected by HIV/AIDS. In addition to the table of key HIV/AIDS and socioeconomic indicators that accompanies this analysis, readers may also want to consult the 2003 indicators related to progress on Millennium Development Goals, which are published by UNDP . Country Overview India is a federal republic57 comprising 35 states and union territories.58 India, which has a secular constitution,59 is the world's largest democracy.60 Though it occupies only 2.5 percent of the world's land area, the country is home to about 16.9 percent of the world's population.61 (Only China has a larger population.) India's mid-2003 population was 1.0686 billion.62 In 17 states, the population exceeds 20 million; 10 Indian states have populations over 50 million.63 To provide a sense of the scale of the country, consider that India accounts for: * 36 percent of the world's poor (i.e., those living on less than US$1/day)64 * 20 percent of the world's out-of-school children65 * 20 percent of the world's gender gap in elementary education 66 * 23 percent of the world's child deaths67 * 25 percent of the world's maternal deaths68 * 22 percent of the world's unsupplied demand for reproductive health services69 * 30 percent of the world's deaths from poor access to water and sanitation70 * 25 percent of deaths from indoor air pollution 71 * 50 percent of the world's hungry72 Twenty-eight percent of India's population lives in urban areas (comprising about 200 towns and cities).73 The rural population spans about 550,000 villages. Having been invaded numerous times over thousands of years, India has absorbed many influences. Despite that religious and ethnic tensions persist, India is remarkably diverse in terms of language, ethnicity, religion, and culture.74 Religion, caste, and language are major determinants of sociopolitical organization. There are 18 official languages, of which Hindi is the most widely spoken. The predominant ethnic group is Indo-Aryan (72 percent), followed by Dravidian (25 percent). About 80 percent of the population is Hindu (855 million); 12 percent is Muslim (about 128 million Muslims), 2.3 percent Christian (25 million) and 1.9 percent Sikh (20 million) (other religious groups include Jains, Buddhists, and Parsis).75 The caste system reflects Indian occupational and religiously defined hierarchies. Traditionally, there are four broad categories of castes (varnas), including a category of outcastes, earlier called "untouchables" but now commonly referred to as dalits. Within these broad categories, there are thousands of castes and subcastes, whose relative status varies by region. Despite economic modernization and laws countering discrimination against the lower end of the class structure, the caste system remains an important source of social identification for most Hindus and a major factor in politics.76 In recent decades, India has significantly improved the well-being of its people.77 During the 1990s, the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line fell from 36 to 26 percent. The 1990s saw greater openness, transparency, and competition, as well as measures to devolve more power to state and local governments. Constitutional amendments in 1993 provided a legal foundation to local governments and sought to strengthen participatory processes at the local level. These amendments included a mandatory requirement that one-third of local representatives be women, and that seats be reserved for scheduled castes and tribes in proportion to their population.78 India has become much more integrated with the world economy. 79 Despite achievements, however, the scope of poverty continues to be enormous. Vast disparities in per capita income among and within India's states persist. 80 A high proportion of the population¾mostly the poor, women, and scheduled tribes and castes¾continues to suffer and die from preventable infections, pregnancy and childbirth-related complications, and malnutrition.81 Although literacy and school enrollments are rising, gender disparities remain acute.82 Postcolonial Period After about 100 years of British colonial rule, India became a dominion within the Commonwealth in August 1947, with Jawaharlal Nehru as prime minister. Hostility between Hindus and Muslims led the British to partition British India and create East and West Pakistan, where there were Muslim majorities. India became a republic within the Commonwealth in January 1950. 83 After independence, the Congress Party, the party of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, dominated Indian politics until the late 1980s. In 1966, Nehru's daughter, Indira Gandhi, became prime minister. In 1975, as India faced deepening political and economic problems, Gandhi declared a state of emergency and suspended many civil liberties. Seeking a mandate at the polls for her policies, she called elections in 1977, but was defeated by Moraji Desai, who headed the Janata Party, a consortium of five opposition parties. 84 In 1979, Desai's government collapsed. Charan Singh formed an interim government, which was followed by Indira Gandhi's return to power in January 1980. In October 1984, Indira Gandhi was assassinated, and her son, Rajiv, was chosen by the Congress Party to take her place. His government was brought down in 1989 by allegations of corruption. Governments led by V.P. Singh and Chandra Shekhar followed. 85 Since the 1980s, the power of the Congress Party has been declining and has led to the development of religious, regional, caste-based, and nativist (e.g., Shiv Sena in Maharashtra State) parties. While this phenomenon has broadened the political spectrum and permitted more voices to be heard, it has also led to greater government instability and the prevalence of coalition politics, rendering implementation of reforms difficult. 86 In the 1989 elections, although Rajiv Gandhi and the Congress Party won more seats than any other single party, they were unable to form a government with a clear majority. The Janata Dal, a union of opposition parties, was able to form a government with the help of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the right and the communists on the left. This loose coalition collapsed in November 1990, and the government was controlled for a short period by a breakaway Janata Dal group supported by the Congress Party, with Chandra Shekhar as prime minister. That alliance also collapsed, resulting in national elections in June 1991. 87 In May 1991, while campaigning in Tamil Nadu, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated, apparently by Tamil extremists from Sri Lanka. In the June elections, Congress won 213 parliamentary seats and formed a coalition, returning to power under the leadership of P.V. Narasimha Rao. This Congress-led government, which served for five years, initiated a process of economic liberalization (discussed below).88 The final months of the Rao-led government in spring 1996 were marred by several major political corruption scandals. The BJP emerged from the May 1996 national elections as the single-largest party but without a majority of Parliament. Under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP coalition was in power for 13 days. To avoid another round of elections, a 14-party coalition led by the Janata Dal emerged to form a government known as the United Front. The Congress Party withdrew its support from the United Front in November 1997. New elections in February 1998 brought the BJP the largest number of seats in Parliament but not a majority. In March 1998, the president inaugurated a BJP-led coalition government, with Vajpayee again serving as prime minister. In May 1998, the government conducted a series of underground nuclear tests, which led then U.S. President Bill Clinton to impose economic sanctions on India pursuant to the 1994 Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Act.89 In April 1999, the BJP-led coalition government fell apart, leading to new elections in September. The National Democratic Alliance¾a new coalition led by the BJP¾gained a majority to form the government, with Vajpayee as prime minister in October 1999. 90 The National Democratic Alliance government led by the BJP remains in power. However, the BJP has lost several state-level elections to Congress, which now rules in 14 states. The BJP rules in just four states, as a junior member of coalitions in another two, while its allies rule three. 91 Economy About 63 percent of the Indian workforce is in the agricultural sector, which accounts for 25 percent of GDP. Major agricultural products include wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, jute, and tea. Twenty-two percent of the population works in industry and commerce (representing 29 percent of GDP); major products include textiles, processed food, steel, machinery, transport equipment, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, mining, petroleum, chemicals, and computer software. Of the remaining workforce, 11 percent are in services and government and 4 percent in transport and communications. India's natural resources include coal, iron ore, manganese, mica, bauxite, chromite, thorium, limestone, barite, titanium ore, diamonds, and crude oil. Major exports are agricultural products, engineering goods, precious stones, cotton apparel and fabrics, handicrafts, and tea.92 Structural Adjustment In the early 1990s, India was facing a severe financial crisis. During 1990-91, the gross fiscal deficit of the government (central and states) reached 10 percent of GDP, and the annual inflation rate peaked at nearly 17 percent in August 1991. Given that foreign currency reserves had fallen to US$1 billion by mid-1991, India utilized emergency measures to avoid defaulting on its immediate debt service obligations and the financing of imports.93 In 1991, India embarked on a structural adjustment program, including liberalizing foreign investment and exchange regimes, significantly reducing tariffs and other trade barriers, and reforming and modernizing the financial sector. The reform process has had some highly beneficial effects on the Indian economy, including higher growth rates, lower inflation, and significant increases in foreign investment. 94 Real GDP growth was 6.8 percent during 1998-99, an increase from 5 percent during 1997-98.95 Since 1991, foreign direct investment has risen significantly.96 The IT sector has shown tremendous growth in recent years, with revenues estimated at US$8 billion in 2000.97 However, foreign direct investment, though higher than in the early 1990s, is still very low compared to other large developing countries (US$2.5 billion per year compared to US$32 billion in Brazil and nearly US$40 billion in China, during the second half of the 1990s).98 GDP growth has slowed; during 2000-01, it averaged 5.4 percent,99 far short of the government target of 8 percent.100 Large fiscal deficits remain a major obstacle.101 From 1998-99 to 2001-02, the general government deficit increased from 8.8 to 10.3 percent of GDP. During this period, general government debt rose from 68 to 81 percent of GDP.102 The World Bank notes that "structural reforms have moved at a mixed pace," and that a series of scandals in 2001 related to corruption in defense procurement, stock market manipulation, and mismanagement of the country's largest state-owned mutual fund "may have distracted the central government from its ambitious reform agenda."103 The Bank goes on to note that the both the central and state governments are facing a "deteriorating fiscal situation."104 Most important, despite the structural reforms of the 1990s, vast income disparities between and within India's states persist and poverty reduction remains paramount (see Poverty section below).105 Per capita income has increased, from US$390 in 1990 to US$380 in 1995 to US$450 in 2000.106 In 2001, gross national income (GNI) per capita (terminology that has replaced GDP per capita) was US$480.107 This figure is somewhat higher than that for the South Asia region (US$450) and for all low-income countries (US$430). However, globally, India's GNI per capita ranks 162 out of 208 countries.108 In a July 2003 report, the World Bank itself noted that structural adjustment had led to "uneven" progress in India and that government attention to inequality is critical: Development progress has been steady, but uneven. It has been uneven across indicators of living standards, with notable progress in some areas, but little or no progress in others. Maternal and under-five mortality, for instance, has hardly improved, while the new threat of HIV/AIDS is spreading quickly. And unemployment, although still low by international standards, has increased. Progress has also been uneven across regions. There is evidence of divergence in per capita incomes across states, with richer states increasing incomes faster than poorer ones. As a result, poverty has become increasingly concentrated in the country's slower growing states.109 Weaknesses in service delivery are of special concern in the social sectors: education, health and social safety nets. While India has made substantial progress towards achieving better social indicators over the past two decades, the rates of improvement have not been sufficient to achieve the targets set in the Tenth Plan or even the less ambitious Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).110 Spending on Health Structural adjustment has sought to shift more health care delivery to the private sector. Public spending on health, as a percent of GDP, did not rise during the 1990s (0.9 percent), whereas private expenditure on health now accounts for 4.0 percent of GDP, or 81.6 percent of all health spending.111 Dr. Brijesh Purohit of the Administrative Staff College of India states that: In the period prior to liberalization, between 1974-82, grants to the States from Central government for the health sector comprised 19.9 percent of the States' health expenditure. However, following liberalization, this component of central grants fell to 5.8 percent (in 1982-89) and further to 3.3 percent (in 1992-93). This decline is most noticeable in the case of specific-purpose central grants for public health and disease control programs. The central component for the former of these (public health) dropped from 27.92 percent (in 1984-85) to 17.7 percent (in 1992-93). The latter in the same duration declined from 41.47 to 18.50 percent. The other component of health expenditure, family welfare, also faced a decline of central grants, from 99 to 88.59 percent of the States' health expenditure....This falling share of central grants had a more pronounced impact on the poorer states, which found it more difficult to raise local resources. The likelihood of increasing state expenditure on [the] health care sector is further limited in future with the continued pace of reforms.112 As discussed in the Health section below, there is an increasing gap between rich and poor states with regard to public resources available for health, with resultant disparities in health outcomes.113 Indeed, in July 2003, the World Bank noted that India's "progress in health indicators has been slowing down precipitously."114 Concurrently, the Bank believes that "the private health sector in India is unlikely to substantially improve the health and nutritional status of the poor."115 In its most recent health review of India, the Bank called for more explicit targeting of the poorest sections of society, including exploring the "viability of providing the poor with some insurance against catastrophic health events." 116 Dr. Nirupam Bajpai of Harvard's Center for International Development believes that India's overall government spending must decline substantially to achieve macroeconomic stability and long-term rapid growth; however, Bajpai argues for an increased role for government in health, particularly vis-à-vis major infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS:117 The government needs to give greater attention to, and provide larger resources for, education and health. In the sphere of raising the literacy levels and providing greater access to basic health services, the state governments are required to play a much more enlarged role.118 Both the federal and state governments have a particularly urgent and critical role in spreading literacy and access to primary health care to all the Indians so that they can all participate in a meaningful manner and benefit fully from India's economic transformation....The federal government needs to undertake aggressive public health campaigns to address major infectious diseases (pneumonia, diarrheal diseases, and malaria) and especially the incipient AIDS epidemic, which now threatens India with tens of millions of cases unless properly addressed.119 The reforms implemented so far have helped India attain 6 plus percent growth, however, should India be able to implement these remaining reforms and re-orient governmental spending away from inessential expenditures towards high priority areas of health and education and infrastructure development, then it is very likely to attain and sustain even higher rates of economic growth.120 Certainly, a major concern is that as the central government reduces its role in health care delivery, with decentralization and privatization to fill the gap, safety nets for the poor (especially those in rural areas and women) are being threatened. This scenario is particularly worrisome as the ability of state governments to provide basic health care is imperiled, given their current and severe fiscal problems.121 (Further discussion in Health section below.) Poverty There has been intense debate regarding recent poverty trends in India. Statistical problems in recent household surveys render it difficult to ascertain precisely poverty dynamics during the 1990s. The emerging consensus appears to be that there was some decline in poverty during the 1990s, but the size of the decline remains unclear.122 The official estimates are that the national poverty rate fell from 36 percent of the population in 1993-94 to 26 percent by the end of the decade. Some studies, however, have found that poverty fell at a somewhat lower rate, from 36 to 29 percent.123 Using international poverty markers, in 1997, 44.2 of the population lived on less than US$1 a day, and 86.2 percent lived on less than US$2 a day (i.e., the percentages of the population living on less than US$1.08 a day and US$2.15 a day, respectively, at 1993 international prices [equivalent to US$1 and US$2 in 1985 prices, adjusted for purchasing power parity]).124 Richer states grew faster over the 1990s and may have also been more successful at reducing poverty.125 Poverty is increasingly concentrated in the poorest states, particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Madhya Pradesh (see table 6).126 Table 6. Percent of Population below National Poverty Line in Orissa, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, 1999-2000 State Population, 2001 (millions) Percent of Population below National Poverty Line, 1999-2000 Orissa 36.7 47.2 Bihar 82.9 42.6 Madhya Pradesh 60.4 37.4 Uttar Pradesh 166.1 31.1 Sources: Census of India. Census of India 2001: Provisional Population Totals. New Delhi: April 4, 2001 ; Nirupam Bajpai. A Decade of Economic Reforms in India: The Unfinished Agenda. Harvard Center for International Development Working Paper no. 89. Cambridge, Mass.: April 2002 Nirupam Bajpai of Harvard notes that: There is no doubt that geography heavily influences economic performance....The [Indian] interior has done much less well [than coastal states]. GDP growth in the hinterland has lagged behind the coastal states by several percentage points per year. There is a vast amount of economic reform that can be carried out to improve conditions in rural India, especially in the Gangetic valley....In particular, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Orissa are in desperate need of reform.127 Chronic poverty is disproportionately high among casual agricultural laborers, scheduled castes (formerly called "untouchables"), and scheduled tribes (indigenous groups).128 In rural areas, the incidence of poverty is highly correlated with lack of access to land.129 According to a 2001 report of the World Food Program: India has achieved self-sufficiency in food grain production and currently holds substantial stock in reserves. Yet more than 200 million people remain hungry and chronically food insecure, and the statistics on hunger and deprivation reveal the depth of vulnerability faced by women and children. Although India has one of the largest targeted food assistance programs in the world, the effectiveness of that program has been limited.130 The primary cause of food insecurity is poverty. Chronic, limited access to food results from low income, poor access to basic agricultural inputs, low farm incomes, and few alternative sources of rural income. Transitory food insecurity results from seasonal fluctuations in food availability and access, as well as from natural disasters.131 Since the early 1950s, the Government of India and most state governments have implemented direct antipoverty programs providing wage employment, productive assets (such as land or animals), training, credit, and food security to the poor. For the most part, these programs have been poorly targeted, inefficiently managed, and highly fragmented.132 There has been very slow progress on social justice and equality for the poor, particularly vis-à-vis minorities, scheduled castes, and scheduled tribes. Court decisions on behalf of the poor may go unenforced, whereas the police often act for the rich (or at least are perceived to do so). 133 Governance Decentralization As mentioned above, constitutional amendments in 1993 provided a legal foundation to local governments and sought to strengthen participatory processes at the local level. These amendments included a mandatory requirement that one-third of local representatives be women, and that seats be reserved for scheduled castes and tribes in proportion to their population.134 However, commitment to decentralization has varied by state, as has capacity to strengthen local government. Although a new political structure of local, mid-level, and district councils exists, the authority and resources of these entities may be minimal. In many states, although the district remains the basic unit of administration, the state legislature and administrative structure, subject to limitations imposed by the central government, still control service delivery, such as the availability of health clinics and schools. In Andhra Pradesh, for example, little authority has been turned over to local councils.135 In theory, as women and scheduled castes gained a voice on panchayat councils, these councils were expected to advocate for propoor and gender-sensitive expenditures. However, experience on the ground is mixed. One study found that although decentralization in Karnataka has increased rates of political participation, enhanced accountability, and rendered government institutions more responsive to citizens, the net effect in two of the state's districts has been to increase the share of resources allocated to well-off groups at the expense of poorer groups; this is because local elites now control the councils' agenda.136 How decentralization is realized on the ground has import for responding to HIV/AIDS, particularly with regard to addressing the needs of vulnerable and marginalized groups. Moreover, propoor and gender-sensitive expenditures affect HIV/AIDS directly (prevention, care, and treatment) and indirectly (socioeconomic investments in health, education, etc.). Corruption Corruption in India is systemic.137 Transparency International states that corruption pervades "every aspect of economic and political life."138 TI goes on to state that: The role of the corporate sector has been widely identified as fuelling traditions of impropriety in South Asian states and contributing to a vicious cycle of public and private sector problems: the chronic region-wide failure to pay taxes, poor public service delivery and inadequate enforcement of financial regulations. Banks and state-sponsored finance, insurance and pension companies have been the chief targets of private sector corruption.139 In 2001, there were numerous, high-visibility allegations of corruption leveled at the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Vajpayee, including the Tehelka.com, Unit Trust of India, and Tata Finance Ltd. scandals.140 Pervasive corruption highlights the risk of "leakage" from funds allocated to HIV/AIDS, as well as the common practice of paying bribes to expedite action on projects. With decentralization, states are increasingly responsible for addressing corruption,141 though whether they have adequate resources (in addition to political will) to do so is questionable, given the fiscal crisis described above. Judiciary Unable to persuade the executive or legislative branches to take action, many Indian NGOs are increasingly using public interest litigation (PIL) to defend rights.142 Some of these cases have involved the rights of PWHA, as the Human Rights section below discusses. PIL cases go directly to the high courts or the Supreme Court. Although the courts are generally sympathetic to rights cases, their commitment is erratic. For example although the need for extensive police reform has been documented by numerous Indian human rights groups and by India's official National Human Rights Commission, 143 the courts do little to stem the problem.144 The Indian judicial system is impeded by: * enormous backlogs (about 28 million cases) * extremely slow processing times (five to ten years or more if appeals and applications for execution are filed) * some degree of corruption at the state level * low level of knowledge about new aspects of the law (e.g., new commercial legislation, arbitration) * weak enforcement of decisions145 These delays have serious human rights implications for the poor, who cannot afford to post bail. About 1 million citizens are in jail pending a charge or trial. In Delhi's Tihar jail, of the 11,000 inmates, only 2,000 are convicted criminals; the remaining 9,000 are all awaiting processing.146 The very poor do not use the courts, as they do not have the financial resources nor the time (litigants must appear each time a case is scheduled or rescheduled). There are also customary constraints, wherein members of lower castes do not challenge members of higher castes. Many Indians do not know that they have certain rights or that redress is an option.147 The above scenario has wide import for the human rights of PWHA, as well as for police harassment and abuse of SWs, MSM, and the staff of HIV/AIDS projects that work with them.148 (See the Human Rights section for detailed discussion.) Freedom of Information In India, a national freedom of information bill passed the committee stage in March 2002, but the amendments introduced were severely criticized by civil society activists as undermining the effectiveness of the proposed legislation. Karnataka, Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh have enacted their own access to information laws. However, again, activists raised concerns that loopholes were deliberately inserted into state legislation to enable officials to deny access to information when convenient. Many state laws also fail to include penalty clauses for not providing information.149 Violence See also the Human Rights section below. Over the past several years, India has experienced a significant increase in organized and random violence, particularly communal, ethnic, tribal, and caste-based violence. A 1998 study found that about half of the country's over 600 districts faced some form of unrest, whether communal violence, insurgency, or gang rule.150 The political mobilization of religious communities has led to a scenario in which politicians exacerbate differences between groups to consolidate support among their own group. A major factor has been the rise in Hindu nationalism since the early 1980s. Hindu nationalist organizations include the largest student organization in India, the largest trade union in the country, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the VHP (which concentrates on strengthening Hindu identity and unity and which led the Ayodha temple movement), and the Bajrang Dal (a paramilitary group). All these groups have facilitated an environment that gives rise to violence against religious minorities (Muslim, Christian).151 In January 2001, Gujarat sustained the most severe earthquake in India over the last 50 years. The earthquake killed an estimated 16,480 people. In the worst-affected areas, 95 percent of buildings were destroyed, and almost 1 million people lost their homes.152 Following the earthquake in 2002, there was an outbreak of ethnic violence. The International Federation of the Red Cross noted that the prolonged rioting severely hampered rehabilitation efforts. Although the situation was gradually improving, the terrorist attack on the Hindu Akshardham temple in the state capital of Gandhinagar in September 2002, in which 31 people were killed and 100 injured, led to further violence between Hindus and Muslims.153 The "Seven Sisters" ¾ the northeastern states of Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Arunanchal Pradesh ¾ encompass 200 ethnic groups. All these states are plagued by some degree of civil conflict. In Assam, for example, the influx of migrants from West Bengal and of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh has generated communal tensions (native Assamese are Hindu). There are 43 insurgent groups in Assam; the United Front for the Liberation of Assam is the largest and controls portions of the state. Ongoing conflicts have led to the deaths of civilians, security forces, and members of the UFLA. In Manipur, 18 ethnic insurgent groups are active. 154 India's relations with Pakistan are influenced by the centuries-old rivalry between Hindus and Muslims, which led to Partition in 1947. The principal source of contention has been Kashmir. In 1947, Kashmir's Hindu Maharaja chose to join India, despite that a majority of his subjects were Muslim. India maintains that his decision and subsequent elections in Kashmir have rendered the state an integral part of India. Pakistan asserts Kashmiris' rights to self-determination through a plebiscite in accordance with an earlier Indian pledge and U.N. resolution.155 A recent report undertaken for USAID notes that: Obviously, Kashmir is the biggest threat to regional security in South Asia. India is not going to release Kashmir, and Pakistan is unlikely to give up its support for Kashmiri independence or incorporation into Pakistan itself...The human rights abuses on the government side, just as on the militant side, are profound and serious. They include targeted assassinations, custodial killings, torture and disappearances. 156 Ethnic violence, among other things, can spur significant population dislocation and regroupings of family units, which entail exposure to new sexual networks and thus may heighten vulnerability to HIV (see Population Mobility section below). It also affects state and local government's ability to deliver essential services. Military Spending Violence within India, as well as the tensions with Pakistan, also means that significant resources are directed to the military. Military expenditures as a percent of GDP decreased slightly during the 1990s, from 2.7 percent in 1990 to 2.5 percent in 2001. By comparison, in 2000, India's public expenditure on health was 0.9 percent (a figure that did not change during the 1990s).157 (According to UNDP's Human Development Report 2003, in addition to India, the governments of 41 other countries [for which comparable data were available] also spent more on the military than on health during 2000-01.158) (See also the accompanying table of key HIV/AIDS and socioeconomic indicators for comparative indicators on the military, arms imports, etc.) Nevertheless, more recent figures on military spending, which may have increased after events in 1999 and 2001, have not been released. Given India's ongoing tensions with Pakistan, the events of 9/11/01, and a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001,159 one might infer that military spending will remain high. Human Development One method of tracking human development in India is to analyze trends in its Human Development Index. The HDI was created by UNDP to measures average achievements in life expectancy at birth; adult literacy and combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrollment ratios; and GNI. An HDI of 0.800 or above = high human development; 0.500 - 0.799 = medium human development; less than 0.500 = low human development. India's human development index has been increasing, from 0.407 in 1975 to 0.473 in 1985 to 0.545 in 1995 to 0.577 in 2000.160 In 2001, India's HDI had reached 0.590.161 However, these improvements mask enormous inequalities within the country. For example, in 1997, the richest 20 percent of the population represented 46.1 percent of income/consumption, where the poorest 20 percent of the population represented just 8.1 percent of income/consumption.162 The mortality, malnutrition, and fertility rates of the poorest 20 percent of Indians are over double those of the richest quintile.163 Broadly, human development indicators are better for smaller states and union territories.164 (More detail on the Health section below.) During the 1990s, India's public expenditures on education rose from 3.9 to 4.1 percent of GDP.165 In education, India has steadily raised primary enrollment rates since independence and today has the world's second largest education system after China, with 108 million children ages six to 10 attending primary school. However, over 25 million primary school age children are not in school. Children from poorer families are at a greater disadvantage. The dropout rate for the poorest households is about four times that of the richest ones. There are large gaps in access to education; quality of education; and educational attainment according to gender, social class, and region.166 (See the Gender section below.) Health is discussed in a separate section below. Population Mobility There is enormous population mobility in India and throughout South Asia. Mobile populations include * permanent and seasonal labor migrants within the country * those entering and leaving India for work-related reasons * people dislocated by drought, floods, or other disasters * people dislocated by conflict * refugees seeking asylum in India * transport workers * traders/vendors * hotel and tourism workers * tourists (e.g., temple tourists) * prisoners * military personnel * sex workers * trafficked persons * MSM India has a long history of mobility, with various groups having invaded the country over the last centuries.167 During colonial rule, the British moved segments of the population to Sri Lanka, Malaya, and other countries to work on plantations. Movements of unskilled workers increased during the 1970s, including to the Gulf states, which sought cheap labor. 168 According to the 1993 National Sample Survey in India, 24.7 percent of the population had migrated, either within India, to neighboring countries, or overseas. 169 Applying this percentage to the mid-2003 population of 1.069 billion,170 about 264 million Indians are mobile. Labor migration is a common livelihood strategy in India. Poverty and lack of economic opportunity pushes many to migrate to urban and manufacturing areas for jobs in the formal or informal sectors. Other reasons include the desire to leave more traditional rural communities for urban areas. Some women may be forced to migrate, as they are perceived as a burden to their family and as a reliable source for remittance income. Some women may also be fleeing domestic violence. 171 , 172 Low-skill female migrants are particularly vulnerable to acquiring HIV, as discussed below.173 India is also a country of origin, transit, and destination for thousands of trafficked persons.174 The communities from which migrants emigrate are vulnerable to HIV for several reasons. While their male partners are away for long periods (and particularly if they do not send regular remittances), some women may rely on sex work to supplement household income. Returning migrants with HIV, many of whom do not know their status, may infect their wives or other sex partners in the home community. 175 Intracountry Migration India's second National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2), conducted during 1998-99, found that the national sex ratio was 957 females for every 1,000 males in rural areas but only 928 females for every 1,000 males in urban areas. Among the rural population ages 20-29 and 50-59, the sex ratio rises even further, to 1,075-1,221 women for every 1,000 males. These data suggest that many more men than women have migrated to urban areas.176 Urbanization has resulted in large slum populations.177 (India's first National Family Health Survey was conducted in 1992-93. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare subsequently appointed the International Institute for Population Sciences [IIPS] in Mumbai to initiate a second survey [NFHS-2], which was conducted during 1998-99. The NFHS-2 sample covered over 99 percent of India's population living in (then) 26 states; it did not cover union territories. NFHS-2 was conducted with financial support from USAID and UNICEF. Technical assistance was provided by ORC Macro and the East-West Center.178) At the XIV International AIDS Conference in Barcelona in July 2002, numerous Ind